October So Far: Oil Near $100, Gold Swings, Dollar Holds Firm

October has been a month of large moves outside the currency majors. Those moves have fed back into FX through inflation and interest-rate expectations.

Oil

• US crude (WTI) traded around $100 a barrel for much of the month. Supply fears linked to the conflict involving Iran kept prices high.
• Prices eased early this week to about $100–101, after reports of talks on ending the war and new Ukraine peace talks.
• High energy prices keep inflation pressure on central banks. That is one reason markets expect rates to stay high or rise further.

Gold

• Gold fell about 4% in the week to 23 October. It was the metal's weakest week in more than four months, and it briefly dipped below $4,000 an ounce.
• It recovered to around $4,060 on 27 October as oil prices eased.

The dollar and EUR/USD

• The dollar has been supported by the Fed's September rate rise and by expectations of another rise before year-end.
• EUR/USD closed around 1.11 on 27 October.

The week ahead

The Fed (28 Oct), ECB (29 Oct) and Bank of Japan (30 Oct) all decide this week, and the Bank of England follows on 5 November. See our central-bank week preview for what each is expected to do.

Market levels are approximate closing levels from 27 October 2026 and are given for context only. They are not live prices. This article is general market commentary, not investment advice.