Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan Decide Within Three Days

Currency traders face one of the busiest weeks of the year. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all announce policy decisions between Wednesday and Friday. The Bank of England follows on 5 November.

Where rates stand

What markets expect

• Fed: the September increase was the first since 2023 and was backed unanimously (12–0), with the Fed pointing to inflation that remains elevated. Futures pricing points to a hold this week. Attention is on whether the Fed keeps the door open to another rise in December.
• ECB: most analysts expect the deposit rate to stay at 2.50%, with a minority looking for another quarter-point rise. Euro-area inflation is running well above the 2% target, so the tone of the press conference matters as much as the decision.
• Bank of Japan: economists widely expect a hold at 1.25%. Many see the next increase in December or January.
• Bank of England: the September vote was 6–3 to hold, with three members wanting a rise to 4%. That keeps a November increase firmly in play.

What it means for traders

• EUR/USD: the pair reacts to two decisions in two days. A Fed that sounds firmer than the ECB would tend to favour the dollar.
• USD/JPY: the Fed and the BoJ both report this week. Any hint of a December BoJ rise could move the yen sharply on Friday.
• Gold and oil: both were volatile in October. Gold had its weakest week in months before recovering, and oil stayed close to $100 a barrel. Firmer rate signals usually weigh on gold.
• Trading costs: spreads on the majors often widen for a few minutes around each announcement, especially on variable-spread accounts. If you trade the news, check your broker's typical spreads and commissions first. Our Spread Meter shows the published figures by broker, with source and date.

This article is general market commentary, not investment advice.