01 — Definition
What is fundamental analysis?
Fundamental analysis studies the economic conditions a currency is priced against. Instead of starting with the chart, it starts with the economy behind the currency: how expensive borrowing is, how fast prices are rising, how many people are working, and what the central bank is likely to do about all of it.
Three questions, one market
技术分析关注
价格在做什么？
它描述了市场自身的记录：从价格本身得出的结构、趋势、水平和动量。
基本面分析关注
哪些经济因素可能影响价格？
它跳出图表，着眼于利率、通货膨胀、就业、增长和政策——这些是货币定价的条件。
情绪分析关注
市场参与者表现如何？
它考虑了持仓和风险偏好：市场普遍预期是什么，以及这种预期变得多么普遍。
02 — The map
The fundamental analysis map
Most fundamental stories can be traced along one simplified chain. Select any link to see what it contributes — and where the chain can break.
CENTRAL BANKS
Set policy and guidance
Each link in this chain feeds the next, and every link can be interrupted. A rate decision only moves a currency to the extent that it differs from what participants had already priced in.
Simplified educational model. Real markets involve many interacting factors, and the chain does not run in one direction only.
03 — Drivers
The biggest economic drivers
Six forces account for most of what moves currency markets over weeks and months. Each gets its own section below.
利率
货币政策和利率预期决定了货币资产可获得的回报，这可能影响对其的需求。
通货膨胀
消费者价格的变化直接影响政策辩论，因为大多数央行都以通胀目标为工作重心。
就业
劳动力市场数据表明经济有多少闲置产能，以及工资压力可能正在累积多少。
国内生产总值 (GDP)
国内生产总值衡量产出。市场通过它来确认增长是否持续或正在减弱。
中央银行
即使利率保持不变，央行的决策、预测以及围绕这些决策和预测的措辞也能改变市场预期。
市场情绪
风险偏好影响资金流向，这可能推动货币与其他资产类别之间的资金流动。
04 — Interest rates
Interest rates and forex
Rates are the single most watched fundamental input, because they set the return on holding a currency's assets — and because expectations about them shift long before any decision is announced.
How a rate decision reaches the exchange rate
Interest-rate differentials — a simple EUR/USD example
If expectations for United States interest rates rise relative to euro-area rates, market participants may reassess the relative attractiveness of USD-denominated assets. That reassessment is what a differential describes: not the level of either rate, but the gap between them and the direction that gap is expected to travel.
This does not mean EUR/USD must fall. Markets price expectations, positioning and many other factors, and a widely anticipated change can already be reflected in the exchange rate before it happens.
05 — Central banks
Who sets the tone
A central bank manages monetary policy for its economy. Traders follow them because their decisions — and the language around those decisions — reset what the market expects.
美联储
美国
设定联邦基金目标区间并发布增长、通胀和利率预测。
欧洲中央银行
欧元区
为成员国制定单一货币政策，而各成员国国情差异显著。
英格兰银行
英国
通过委员会投票决定政策，因此投票结果本身受到市场关注。
日本银行
日本
长期实行异常宽松的政策，这影响了日元的交易方式。
政策利率
作为短期借贷成本基准的利率。
货币政策
更广泛的政策立场，包括资产购买或资产负债表决策。
前瞻性指引
关于未来可能路径的信号，市场通常会在其发生前很久就已消化。
通胀目标
衡量央行表现的既定目标。
经济预测
公布的关于增长、物价和就业的预测。
政策预期
市场参与者认为央行将采取的行动——通常是价格的真正驱动因素。
Hawkish, neutral, dovish
These words describe the lean of a central bank's communication, not a forecast for price. Select a stance to see what it means in plain language.
Neutral: No strong lean in either direction — waiting for more data before committing.
06 — Inflation
Inflation and CPI
The Consumer Price Index measures how the price of a basket of goods and services changes over time. It matters to currency markets mainly because it shapes what a central bank is likely to do next.
From prices to the currency market
通胀上升
可加强收紧政策的理由，但这仅限于通胀看起来是持续而非一次性现象。
通胀下降
可为宽松政策打开大门——或预示需求减弱，这是另一种情况。
核心通胀
剔除食品和能源等波动性成分，以显示潜在趋势。
通胀预期
家庭和市场对未来物价走势的看法；央行密切关注这些数据。
07 — Employment
Employment data
Labour-market releases are watched because they connect to almost everything else: pay, spending, prices and ultimately policy.
Why jobs data reaches the exchange rate
非农就业
美国每月非农业部门新增就业的估算——日历上最受关注的发布之一。
失业率
积极寻找工作但未能找到工作的劳动力占比。
工资增长
工资上涨的速度，将劳动力市场与通胀讨论联系起来。
初请失业金人数
对劳动力市场恶化或复苏的更高频解读。
High-impact economic releases can create sharp price movements, wider spreads and increased execution risk.
08 — Growth
GDP and economic growth
Gross domestic product measures the output of an economy over a period. Markets read it as evidence about demand, and therefore about the policy path.
How growth data is interpreted
强劲增长
表明需求保持强劲，这可能支持采取更坚定的政策。
增长放缓
可能将讨论转向支持性政策，具体取决于当时的通胀情况。
经济衰退
产出持续收缩，通常伴随着截然不同的政策讨论。
预期与实际
市场反应取决于数据发布与已定价预期之间的差异。
09 — Other indicators
The rest of the calendar
Beyond the headline releases sits a long list of secondary data. Knowing what each one measures stops you reacting to numbers you cannot interpret.
| Indicator | What it tells us | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| PMI | 商业活动 | 基于调查，因此发布较早，被视为领先信号。 |
| 零售销售 | 消费者支出 | 月度波动较大；趋势比单次数据更重要。 |
| 贸易平衡 | 出口与进口 | 变化缓慢，但与商品出口相关的货币密切相关。 |
| 消费者信心 | 家庭情绪 | 情绪不总是能转化为实际支出。 |
| 房地产数据 | 房地产市场状况 | 对利率敏感，因此它通常比其他部门更早做出反应。 |
| 工资增长 | 劳动力成本压力 | 在大多数主要经济体中，这是通胀辩论的核心。 |
| 失业金申请人数 | 短期劳动力市场变化 | 每周公布且波动性大——应作为移动平均值而非单个数字解读。 |
Not every economic release has the same market importance, and that importance can change depending on what participants are currently focused on.
10 — Planning tool
The economic calendar
A calendar tells you when the market is scheduled to receive new information. It is a planning tool: it says nothing about which way price will go.
FXSpreadMeter Economic Calendar
Structure preview
| 日期 | 时间 | 货币 | 事件 | 前值 | 预测 | 实际 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | USD | 消费者物价指数（环比） | 0.2% | 0.3% | — | 高 |
| — | — | USD | 非农就业人数 | 165K | 180K | — | 高 |
| — | — | EUR | 欧洲央行政策利率决议 | — | — | — | 高 |
| — | — | GBP | 国内生产总值（环比） | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 中 |
| — | — | JPY | 制造业PMI | 49.8 | 50.1 | — | 中等 |
| — | — | USD | 初次申领失业金人数 | 221K | 225K | — | 低 |
These rows show the structure of the calendar only. They are not upcoming events and carry no real dates or times. Once a live economic-calendar data source is connected, this table will populate with scheduled releases.
Using an economic calendar
An economic calendar is a timetable of scheduled data releases, central-bank meetings and official statements, grouped by date, time and currency. It exists so you know in advance when new information is due — not to tell you what to do with it.
- Actual / Forecast / Previous: previous sets the trend, forecast is roughly what prices already reflect, and actual is what was reported. The gap between forecast and actual is the surprise element.
- High-impact entries are the ones the widest audience follows. They tend to coincide with faster quotes, wider spreads and less predictable fills — attention, not opportunity.
- Interest-rate decisions matter because the policy rate anchors borrowing costs and a currency's relative yield.
- Inflation data matters because it shapes how long policy may need to stay restrictive.
- Employment data matters because labour strength and wages feed into inflation expectations.
- GDP and growth data matter because they frame the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting activity.
- Central-bank announcements can change expectations even with no rate change, because the expected path is what markets price.
Reading Actual / Forecast / Previous
Three numbers sit beside most releases. Read them together rather than in isolation.
- Previous
- —
- Forecast
- —
- Actual
- —
The last reported figure, which sets the trend the market is comparing against.
The consensus estimate. This is the level roughly reflected in prices beforehand.
The number released. The distance from forecast is the surprise element.
What importance levels mean
Calendars tag each entry with an expected market attention level. It describes how closely the release is followed, not what price will do.
Low
Followed by specialists
- Narrow or niche datasets
- Rarely repricing rate expectations
- Usually little change in conditions
Medium
Watched, rarely decisive
- Retail sales, sentiment surveys, second estimates
- Can matter when the data set is unclear
- Short bursts of activity are common
Signal-level
High attention
- Interest-rate decisions and central-bank statements
- Inflation and headline employment reports
- Conditions such as spreads and slippage can change quickly
Importance is a measure of attention. High-attention events are not automatically bigger opportunities — they can also mean less predictable execution.
How a release turns into market movement
Markets trade expectations. What usually matters is the gap between what was expected and what was reported — and how positioned participants already were before the release.
01Forecast
The consensus figure analysts expect before the release.
02Actual
The figure that is actually reported at the scheduled time.
03Difference / surprise
How far the actual landed from the forecast, in the units of that indicator.
04Market expectations
Participants reassess what the data implies for growth, inflation and policy.
05Potential volatility
Quotes can move faster, spreads can widen and execution can differ from calm conditions.
A better-than-expected number does not automatically mean an asset rises. Expectations may already be priced in, positioning may unwind, revisions or other headlines may dominate, and broader conditions can point the other way.
FXSpreadMeter tool
Using an economic calendar
See the scheduled releases, filter by currency, importance and event type, and open any entry for an explanation of what it measures.
Open FXSpreadMeter Economic Calendar11 — Reading a release
Previous, forecast, actual
Every calendar row carries three numbers. Understanding how they relate to each other explains most of what happens in the minutes after a release.
- Previous
- 2.4%
- Forecast
- 2.6%
- Actual
- 2.9%
The last published reading.
The consensus expectation going in.
What was published.
The surprise is the story
Actual above forecast does not automatically mean the currency will rise. Markets also consider:
- 市场已经消化了预期
- 仓位——现有观点的拥挤程度
- 当前的央行政策和指引
- 同期发布F的其他经济数据
- 更广泛的市场情绪和风险偏好
- 数据发布细节，而不仅仅是标题数字
12 — Sentiment
Risk-on and risk-off
Some days the market is not trading the data at all — it is trading appetite. Risk sentiment describes how willing participants are to hold assets they perceive as risky.
Two moods, one market
13 — Perspectives
Fundamental, technical and sentiment
These are not competing camps. They answer different questions, and traders commonly combine them: fundamentals for context, technicals for structure and levels, sentiment for how crowded a view has become.
Fundamental
Why the market may be repricing
- 经济数据
- 利率
- 通胀
- 就业
- 中央银行
- 增长
Technical
What price has actually done
- 价格
- K线图
- 趋势
- 支撑与阻力
- 指标
- 市场结构
Sentiment
How participants are behaving
- 风险偏好
- 仓位
- 市场行为
14 — Worked example
An EUR/USD scenario, start to finish
- 1
经济数据
美国通胀高于共识预期，且细节显示增长是广泛的，而非局限于某个波动性成分。
- 2
预期
市场参与者重新评估美联储可能放松政策的速度，而近期欧元区数据却指向相反方向。
- 3
市场仓位
大部分市场已为通胀放缓做好了准备，因此部分反应来自于这些仓位的平仓。
- 4
价格反应
EUR/USD 在一个已被关注的技术区域做出反应，同时一项重要的央行公告即将发布。
Notice what this sequence does not contain: an entry, a target or a direction. It is a way of organising information, and the same information could reasonably support more than one conclusion.
Educational scenario — not a prediction or a trading signal.
An important distinction
Fundamental analysis is not news trading
They are often confused. One studies the economic environment over weeks and months; the other tries to profit from price reactions in the seconds and minutes around a release.
Fundamental analysis
Studies the broader economic environment: policy direction, inflation trend, labour-market condition and how expectations are shifting over time.
News trading
Focuses on short-term price reactions around specific releases, where execution conditions are at their least predictable.
Common mistakes
Eight habits worth avoiding
15 — Practice
An eight-step beginner routine
This is a study routine, not a trading routine. Everything here can be done on a demo account or on paper.
- 1
选择一到两种货币
深度优于广度。密切关注两种货币比泛泛了解八种货币学到的更多。
- 2
查看经济日历
在周初了解计划中的事件，而不是在蜡烛图让您感到意外之后。
- 3
识别即将发生的主要事件
区分那些通常很重要和很少重要的发布。
- 4
阅读预测
记下市场共识数据。这是市场衡量现实的标准。
- 5
记录实际结果
在数据发布时记录下来，并与之前的数据进行比较。
- 6
观察价格变化
注意几分钟内和剩余交易时段内的反应——它们通常不同。
- 7
与预期进行比较
价格变动是由意外事件解释的，还是由同时发生的其他事件解释的？
- 8
记录您的观察
一个简单的日志可以将零散的印象转化为可以实际回顾的模式。
Practise on a demo account rather than immediately risking real money. Learning how a release behaves costs nothing; learning it with live exposure can cost a great deal.
FXSpreadMeter fundamental analysis checklist
Tick off what you can explain in your own words
This checklist tracks understanding of concepts only. Completing it does not mean you are ready to trade or that trading is suitable for you.
Next: Module 7
Forex Risk Management
Understanding the market is only one part of trading. The next lesson focuses on position sizing, leverage, stop-losses, risk/reward and protecting an account from excessive exposure.
Live market data
Understanding live forex quotes
Every price you see in a trading platform arrives as two numbers, not one. Reading them correctly is the difference between understanding a cost and being surprised by it.
Market data is provided by the third-party data provider and may be delayed or subject to the provider's terms. FXSpreadMeter does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of third-party market data.
The bid price represents the price at which the market can buy the base currency, while the ask price represents the price at which the market can sell it. The difference between them is known as the spread.
Reading a EUR/USD quote
Spread
The spread is the difference between the ask and the bid. Here it is 0.0002, or 2 fractional pips. It is the built-in cost you pay on every trade before the market has moved.
- Bid
- The price at which the market can buy the base currency from you — the lower side of the quote.
- Ask
- The price at which the market can sell the base currency to you — the higher side of the quote.
- Spread
- The difference between bid and ask. It is a cost you pay on entry, quoted in pips or points.
- Daily change
- How far the price has moved over the current session, shown in absolute terms and as a percentage.
- Currency pair
- Two currencies quoted against each other, such as EUR/USD — one is always priced in terms of the other.
- Base currency
- The first currency in the pair. It is the unit being priced, and always equals 1 unit.
- Quote currency
- The second currency in the pair. It expresses how much one unit of the base currency costs.
Frequently asked questions
What is forex fundamental analysis?
It is the study of the economic conditions a currency is priced against — interest rates, inflation, employment, growth and central-bank policy — in order to build context for how a currency pair may be viewed by market participants.
Why are interest rates important for currencies?
Rates set the return available on assets denominated in a currency. When expectations for one economy's rates shift relative to another's, participants may reassess where they want capital to sit, and that reassessment can show up in exchange rates.
What does a central bank do?
It manages monetary policy for its economy: setting a benchmark rate, using other policy tools, publishing projections and communicating its intentions. Because markets price expectations, its language often matters as much as its decisions.
What is CPI?
The Consumer Price Index tracks the change in prices of a basket of goods and services. It is the most widely followed inflation measure, and markets read it against both the forecast and the previous reading.
What is NFP?
Non-Farm Payrolls is a monthly United States estimate of jobs added outside the farming sector. It is watched closely because labour-market strength feeds into the inflation and policy debate.
Why does GDP matter for forex?
GDP measures economic output, which informs expectations for demand and policy. It is context rather than a signal: a strong figure does not automatically mean a stronger currency, particularly if the market already expected it.
What is an economic calendar?
A schedule of upcoming data releases and policy events, usually listing the time, the currency affected, the previous reading, the consensus forecast and an impact rating. It is a planning tool, not a prediction tool.
What does risk-on and risk-off mean?
Risk-on describes conditions where participants show more appetite for assets perceived as riskier; risk-off describes the opposite. Some currencies are often discussed in the context of safe-haven flows, but this is a tendency rather than a rule.
Should beginners trade during major news releases?
Generally no. High-impact releases can produce fast moves, wider spreads, slippage and thinner liquidity, all of which make execution unpredictable. Studying releases on a demo account is a lower-risk way to learn how they behave.
Can fundamental analysis predict currency prices?
No. It provides economic context and helps explain why participants may be repricing a currency, but it cannot forecast price with certainty. Forex and CFD trading carries a significant risk of loss regardless of the analysis used.
FXSpreadMeter Education
Written by: FXSpreadMeter Editorial Team
Last reviewed: 29 September 2026
This lesson is educational content only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Forex and CFD trading carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for every investor.
